Iowa in Context

As the political world struggles to come to terms with the most important message from Donald Trump’s overwhelming victory in the Iowa Caucuses, the most prominent commentators largely ignore the most significant of all the many numbers under discussion.

That key figure isn’t the 51% of the total Republican votes that the MAGA Man received, as impressive as that is, or the 20 delegates he secured, or the 88% of his backers who told pollsters they agreed with their hero that Joe Biden had not been legitimately elected to the presidency.

In context, the most important and revealing figure turned out to be 110,298—the total number of hearty Republicans who braved the below-zero, life-threatening weather to cast a vote for any candidate at the January 15^th caucuses.

This amounted to a pathetic 15% of the state’s registered Republicans who dared to challenge the elements to take part in the choice of their party’s nominee for the nation’s highest office. And an even lower portion—some 5%—of all the Hawkeye State’s registered voters participated in the caucuses at all. In other words, Trump’s 51% amounted to less than 3% of all those eligible to vote in Iowa in this fateful election year.  

As the Des Moines Register dutifully reported, the numbers dramatically “lagged past caucus participation” where Republicans normally turn out at a rate of 20 to 30%. The first time Trump ran for president, in 2016, 187,000 people participated, setting a record with 29% of registered Republicans at that time turning out for the beginning of the nominating process.

Of course, this year’s horrible weather played a major role in suppressing attendance, but a University of Iowa political science professor insisted it wasn’t the only factor. “Despite the race generating a lot of interest,” noted Tim Hagle, “it wasn’t particularly close. That’s not overly surprising that turnout was down.”

In fact, the wintry meteorological horrors and reduced participation may have contributed to the impressive scale of Trump’s triumph, helping to produce his 30% margin of victory against second place finisher Ron DeSantis. Everyone who follows politics in Iowa, and across the United States, understands the depth and passion that Trump inspires in his followers, who have been known to camp out for days in order to secure the best seats at his rollicking rallies. Loyal Trumpsters who have supported their hero in two prior presidential campaigns are inevitably more likely to overcome challenges to caucus for their guy in Iowa, than are their neighbors who only recently discovered Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis.

Part of the undeniable advantage enjoyed by presidential incumbents is that by definition they have enjoyed the prior support of millions of admirers who helped them achieve their prior successes. That background logically produces a greater determination to overcome obstacles like inclement weather and other inconveniences.

Trump’s universal name recognition and the cultish devotion of many of his backers will most assuredly help him in future primaries, whether or not they impose bitter blizzard conditions, but figures from the Iowa entrance polls suggest that success in the general election won’t be as easy for him as this first round seemed to be.

Consider the numbers on the two questions that pertain to Trump’s unique vulnerabilities as a potential nominee in November’s climactic contest. No aspect of the former president’s candidacy has proven more controversial than his ongoing insistence on characterizing the electoral battle of 2020 as “stolen” or “rigged” and his dismissal of Biden’s elevation to the White House as fraudulent. Indeed, of those Republicans who showed up to the Iowa caucuses, an overwhelming 65% of all caucus participants, and 88% of those who backed Trump, told pollsters they disagreed with the statement that “Biden won legitimately in 2020.”

In another area of concern, Trump and his team may be reassured that 64% of caucus attendees answered “Yes” to the question, “Is Trump fit to be President if convicted of a crime?”; only 30% couldn’t accept the notion of a Felon in Chief in the Oval Office.

But these figures, remember, reflect the opinions of a self-selected group of dedicated MAGA devotees who showed up for low-turnout caucuses and are hardly representative of the electorate at large, with its majorities of Trump skeptics when Democrats and Independents combine their forces. The striking aspect of the entrance poll questions and the responses they provoked, is that 30% of Republicans thought a conviction would make Trump unfit for the presidency, and a full third of those GOP partisans at the Iowa caucuses rejected the idea of the “stolen election” and say that Biden’s victory was, in fact, legitimate.

If Trump loses that substantial segment of his own party in the general election, the possibilities for his general election victory would diminish dramatically, with no real chance to replicate the lop-sided numbers on his behalf that characterized the impassioned enthusiasts who came out to show their loyalty on a wintry Monday night in Iowa. That opening act landslide—or snow slide—may stand out as more exceptional than typical as he moves on to other settings, and very different contexts, as the drama unfolds in the months ahead.